BFCM Final 18-Day Ops Checklist: What You Can Still Control

If you are reading this on November 10, BFCM is 18 days away. Most strategy decisions are behind you. The good news, you still have time to close the gaps that cost brands money every year.

This checklist focuses on what you can control right now: carrier capacity, inventory accuracy, returns, customer communication, supplier confirmations, and your financial floor.

For planning beyond this window, see our guide: BFCM Logistics Playbook: 5 Moves That Protect Cash Flow and Customer Experience.

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1. Carrier and logistics, lock it down

Do this today.

• Get written confirmation of capacity for BFCM week and the following two weeks.
• Confirm rate cards and any peak surcharges.
• List escalation contacts for exceptions and after-hours support.

Quick wins

• Pre-book backup capacity for 15-20% of volume with an alternate carrier.
• Create a one-page escalation sheet and share it with ops and support.

Why it matters

Delays during BFCM trigger refunds and negative reviews. One thousand delayed orders at a fifty-dollar refund exposure equals fifty thousand dollars. Backup capacity usually costs two to five thousand dollars. The math is simple.

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2. Inventory accuracy, prevent overselling

Do this within 48 hours.

• Audit live inventory counts across Shopify, Amazon, TikTok Shop, and marketplaces. Make one system the source of truth.
• Identify the top 20% of SKUs that drive 80% of revenue.
• Set a 20-30% buffer on those SKUs so spikes do not flip you to out of stock.
• Load test inventory sync. Create a burst of test orders. If updates lag more than 30 seconds, fix it now.

Why it matters

Overselling leads to cancellations, chargebacks, and expedited rework. Five hundred oversold units at one hundred dollars each equals fifty thousand dollars in preventable refunds.

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3. Returns ready, turn a surge into recovery

Return rates jump after BFCM. Prepare the flow before the spike.

Quick wins

• Launch a self-service returns portal. Test it end to end in two clicks.
• Define where returns go for domestic and cross-border orders. Pre-clear bonded or customs documents.
• Decide the incentive. Store credit protects margin better than refunds.
• Publish the policy on product pages, checkout, and order confirmation emails.

Why it matters

Self-service reduces chargebacks and support tickets. It also gets inventory back into sellable stock faster.

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4. Customer expectations, reduce tickets at the source

Clear delivery promises lower ticket volume and refunds.

Quick wins

• Add shipping timelines to every product page. Example, ships within two business days, typical delivery to the U.S. in five to nine days.
• Show estimated delivery dates before checkout.
• Prepare three templates now: order confirmed, processing delay, customs hold.
• Publish your holiday cutoff date and add a simple countdown.

Why it matters

Transparent timelines cut “where is my order” tickets by up to 40% and reduce refund requests.

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5. Supplier confirmations, close the loop

By November 15, get everything in writing.

Quick wins

• Confirm final quantities, QC dates, ship dates, and required documents.
• If QC is scheduled, follow up on results within 48 hours.
• Identify backup SKUs if your top seller slips. Know what you will promote instead.
• Upload customs documents to your broker early.

Why it matters

Most slips occur after production during QC or at customs. A three to five day delay during BFCM can erase a week of planned revenue.

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6. Financial guardrails, know your floor

Decide now which choices protect margin and which do not.

Quick wins

• Calculate your air freight break-even. As a rule, air should not exceed 20% of product margin.
• Set a refund and chargeback budget by category.
• Know your support cost per ticket and reduce tickets at the source with better delivery messaging.
• Set a margin floor by SKU. Do not discount below that line during BFCM.

Why it matters

Loose guardrails can swing two to 5% of annual profit. On ten million in revenue, that is two hundred to five hundred thousand dollars.

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FAQs

What if inventory gets stuck in customs now?
‍Call your broker to request expedited processing. Ask your carrier about alternate ports. Activate backup SKUs. Send a delay email with a clear new ETA.

We use direct fulfillment from factory to customer. What changes?
‍Inventory sync is real-time, which removes a common failure point. You still need capacity confirmation, returns flow, clear customer messaging, and financial guardrails.

My carrier will not confirm capacity yet. What now?
‍Escalate to account management. If they will not put it in writing, book backup capacity today.

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The bottom line

You cannot change what you did in August. You can still prevent the problems that erase margin in late November. Brands that win BFCM have the same thing in common. They lock capacity, keep counts accurate, make returns simple, set expectations, and know their margin floor.

If you manufacture in Asia, there is another way to avoid the last-minute scramble. Orders can ship directly from the factory to your customer in five to nine days. No domestic warehousing. Less capital locked in inventory.

See how Portless makes this possible.

Good luck through peak season. You’ve got this.